Four issues between 2020 and 2021, born to fund the post-pandemic recovery — and around them a surprising amount of confusion: «future coupons are unknown», «there’s a GDP bonus for everyone», «it’s a kind of BTP Italia». All three false. The BTP Futura is actually one of the most predictable bonds in existence — which is precisely why everything about it can be computed, to the cent. Let’s sort things out, then do the maths.
What the BTP Futura is and why it exists
Summer 2020: Italy is coming out of its first lockdown and the Treasury needs to fund extraordinary measures. Enter the BTP Futura, the first government bond reserved for retail savers: no auctions for institutions — you could only subscribe at issuance, through your bank or home banking, with a €1,000 minimum and no subscription fees. The name says it all: the proceeds funded the recovery, and the bond promised to let savers share in that recovery, through a final bonus tied to GDP growth.
The formula was repeated four times between July 2020 and November 2021, then the Treasury moved on to other retail instruments (the BTP Valore from 2023 and the BTP Più — we cover them in the comparison). So the BTP Futura is no longer issued: today you can only buy and sell it on the secondary market (the MOT), like any other BTP. And that is exactly where the misunderstandings this guide wants to dismantle are born.
Two ingredients set it apart from a regular BTP:
- «step-up» coupons — they start low and rise in pre-set steps, all decided at issuance;
- a GDP-linked loyalty bonus — an extra reserved for those who subscribed at issuance and never sold (with a rule, the «CUM», that we’ll get to: it’s the most misunderstood point of all).
The four issues, one by one
Here they all are. Each bond has two ISIN codes: the one traded on the market and the «special» placement one, which carries the right to the bonus (the difference is the heart of the CUM section).
Step-up coupons: they’re all already written
«Step-up» means the coupon rises in steps over time: the 3rd issue, for example, pays 0.75% a year for the first four years, then 1.20%, then 1.65%, and 2.00% for the last four. Coupons are paid every six months, like a regular BTP: the only difference is that the amount isn’t flat but grows, on known dates.
And here the most widespread mistake needs dismantling: no, future coupons are not uncertain. Every step — percentages and dates — was fixed in the issuance decree, back in 2020-21, and will never change. Every euro of coupon from here to maturity is already written, exactly as in a fixed-rate BTP; the only difference is that the amount varies from one period to the next according to a known table. The confusion probably comes from the GDP bonus (that one is uncertain — we’re getting there) or from the assonance with genuinely floating bonds like the CCTs, whose future coupons depend on rates and don’t exist yet. These exist all right: the calculator below shows you every one of them, date by date, to maturity.
The GDP-linked loyalty bonus, explained simply
The idea was: if Italy grows, those who funded the recovery get something extra. The bonus is a percentage of the capital, computed on the average annual change of Italian nominal GDP over the bond’s life, with a guaranteed floor and cap. For the first two issues it’s a single bonus at maturity: at least 1%, at most 3% of the capital. The 3rd and 4th have a triple structure: an interim bonus at year 8 (40% of the first eight years’ average, between 0.4% and 1.2%) plus two components at maturity (the remaining 60% of the first eight years’ average, between 0.6% and 1.8%, and 100% of the later years’ average, between 1% and 3%).
What will they actually be worth? Nobody knows today: the values will come from official Treasury announcements as each bonus matures. The first date is November 2028, at the 2nd issue’s maturity. Until then any number is a guess — which is why our calculator doesn’t invent one: it works on the certain cashflows and treats the bonus for what it is, an extra between a guaranteed floor and cap.
The CUM trap: buyers today will never get the bonus
And here we are at the most misunderstood point of the whole Futura family. The loyalty bonus doesn’t belong to the bond: it belongs to the loyalty. It is due only to those who subscribed at issuance (in 2020-21) and held the bond uninterruptedly until the bonus date.
The mechanism that guarantees it is the dual code: whoever subscribed at issuance holds the «special» ISIN (called CUM, listed in the issues table), which embeds the right to the bonus. The moment they sell — even in part, even for one day — the sold quantity is automatically converted to the ordinary code, the one without the bonus, and that is what circulates on the market. The special code cannot be bought on the secondary market: the Treasury’s official FAQs say so explicitly. The result:
- whoever buys a BTP Futura on the MOT today buys the ordinary code → no bonus, ever, even holding to maturity;
- whoever holds it from issuance and sells loses the right forever on the sold quantity (buying back doesn’t restore it);
- when you evaluate the return of a purchase made today, the bonus must not be counted. Only coupons and redemption count — which, luckily, are known to the cent.
Buying it today: why it trades below 100
As we write (summer 2026) BTP Futura bonds almost all trade below par, the longest ones well below: the 3rd issue (maturing 2037) travels around 80. The reason is neither mysterious nor alarming: its coupons were fixed in 2020-21, when rates were near zero; today the market demands higher yields, and since the coupons cannot change, it is the price that adjusts, falling until the effective yield to maturity matches what the market requires of similar bonds. It’s neither a bargain nor a rip-off: it’s bond arithmetic, the same we told in the BTP guide (above and below par).
Buying below par means the return comes from two sources: the coupons (low, here) and the capital gain at maturity — you pay, say, 80 and get 100 back. In a long BTP Futura this second component can outweigh the coupons themselves. It also has its own tax angle (the gain is «other income», able to offset capital losses): we come back to it under taxes.
The flip side is rate sensitivity: a long bond with low coupons has high duration — a price that swings a lot when rates move. Whoever holds to maturity gets 100 back regardless (barring default); whoever might have to sell earlier needs to know how much the price «dances» in the meantime. That is exactly the number the calculator gives you under modified duration — and which we explain shortly in plain words.
The 2022 lesson: when duration presented the bill
This isn’t theory: it already happened, and it’s why there is so much bitterness around these bonds in the forums. Whoever subscribed the 3rd issue at 100 in 2021 — initial coupon 0.75%, rates at zero — watched the price fall to a low of 62.24 (October 2023), roughly a third of the capital gone on paper, after rates rose four points in a year and a half. Those who held on lost nothing: the coupons arrived on time and redemption at maturity remains 100. Those who sold at the lows turned a fluctuation into a permanent loss — and burned the loyalty bonus forever on top.
Liquidity: you can always sell, but at the book’s price
Another recurring criticism from holders: BTP Futura bonds are retail-only — at issuance none were sold to institutions — and trade thin volumes on the MOT. The bond always remains sellable (dealers guarantee quotes), but the bid-ask gap is often wider than on a regular BTP, and a large order can «eat through» the book. The practical rule is one: always use limit orders, never «at market», after checking how much bid there really is on the book. On a bond bought to hold to maturity it’s a marginal nuisance; for anyone planning to trade in and out, it’s a cost to budget for.
If any word in this section is new to you — bid, ask, spread, limit order — they’re all explained from scratch in our bond glossary, using this very book as the example.
Try it yourself: what it really returns
Pick your issue, enter the price you see on the MOT (the «clean price», the quoted one) and the date: the calculator does the rest, with the bond’s exact, dated cashflows — every coupon with its amount and its date, from the official step table. You get:
- the annual gross yield to maturity (the IRR);
- the net yield, with the 12.5% preferential tax of Italian government bonds;
- the real yield, net of your country’s inflation — you choose the inflation: it’s your assumption, not our forecast;
- the modified duration (how rate-sensitive the price is);
- the accrued interest at settlement and the actual outlay;
- the full coupon calendar to maturity, downloadable as a spreadsheet;
- the real history since issuance: a chart with the true month-end closes (source: Borsa Italiana), the running total with coupons received, and the comparison with your country’s inflation — it updates itself every month.
A note on precision: the results use the market’s real conventions (daily accrual of the current half-year, value-date settlement, compound discounting on actual days) and were verified against the banking circuit’s calculation sheets. They are not a textbook approximation: they are the same numbers your bank would show you.
How to read the results
The IRR (yield to maturity) is the number that sums it all up: it combines the coupons — each with its own amount, since they grow here — and the gain (or loss) between the price you pay and redemption at 100. It’s the only honest yardstick for comparing bonds with different coupons: a low coupon well below par can deliver the same IRR as a rich coupon at full price.
The net figure applies 12.5% to coupons and to any capital gain at maturity. The real figure answers the question that actually matters: «how much do I gain in purchasing power?» — and it depends on future inflation, which nobody knows. That’s why you set the inflation field yourself: try different values and see how sensitive the result is. If it seems a detail, consider that on a long bond one extra point of inflation eats more than the first coupons pay.
Modified duration, in plain words, tells you how much the price falls if market rates rise by one percentage point (and vice versa: it rises as much if they fall). Duration 9 ≈ price down about 9% for +1% in rates. It doesn’t concern you if you’ll hold to maturity — there the redemption at 100 is fixed — but it’s the first number to look at if selling earlier is a possibility. The full theory is in the BTP guide.
Accrued interest, finally: buying between two coupon dates you pay the seller the part of the coupon already accrued, which you recover in full at the first coupon. It’s not a cost — it’s an advance — but it explains why the actual outlay (the «dirty price») is a bit higher than the quoted price. Again, the detail is in the BTP guide.
The comparison: BTP Valore, BTP Più and fixed-rate BTPs
The BTP Futura doesn’t live in a vacuum: the natural question is «and versus the alternatives?». Two comparisons can be made exactly, because on both sides all the cashflows are known:
- With the younger siblings: BTP Valore and BTP Più. Same family — retail bonds with step-up coupons — but loyalty bonuses that are fixed and known from the start (a percentage written in the terms, not GDP-linked); the BTP Più adds the option of early repayment of capital at mid-life. The CUM rule applies to them too: bought on the market, no bonus. Comparing two step-ups is calendar against calendar: the tool below does it coupon by coupon.
- With a fixed-rate BTP of similar maturity. The most useful comparison to see whether the market «prices» the Futura in line with the rest of the curve. Enter the ISIN of the BTP you want to compare: same yardstick (net IRR on dated cashflows), same engine, no approximations.
An experiment worth running: compare the Futura 2037 with a fixed-rate BTP of similar maturity. Historically the market has priced the long Futuras at a somewhat higher yield than ordinary BTPs of equal duration (as we write, the gap on the 2037 is worth a few tenths of a point a year; on shorter maturities it’s nearly nil): it’s the compensation it demands for the low coupons and the thinner liquidity. For traders it’s a cost; for whoever buys and holds to maturity it’s simply extra yield, which the comparison above shows you, IRR against IRR, at today’s prices. As always: it’s a fact, not advice.
And the comparisons you won’t find here? With CCTs one cannot be honest: their future coupons depend on Euribor rates and don’t exist yet. With BTP Italia neither: there the coupons depend on future Italian inflation. Any precise comparison would require inventing the other bond’s cashflows — and we prefer no number to an invented number. They will come in a future version of these tools, with openly scenario-based metrics.
Taxes
The BTP Futura is a government bond, so it enjoys the preferential regime: 12.5% (instead of 26%) on coupons and capital gains, plus the 0.2% yearly stamp duty on the account value. The loyalty bonus, where due, is also taxed at 12.5%. And like all government bonds it is exempt from inheritance tax.
For today’s below-par buyers there’s the extra chapter we anticipated: the difference between purchase price and redemption at 100 is a capital gain («other income»), taxed at 12.5% at maturity but also able to offset prior capital losses — unlike coupons. On a long Futura bought around 80 it’s a large slice of the total return. The full mechanics (the tax backpack, what offsets what, issue vs trading discount) are in the BTP guide: they apply identically here.
Frequently asked questions
Are the BTP Futura’s future coupons certain?
Yes, all of them. Percentages and dates of every coupon, to maturity, were fixed in the 2020-21 issuance decrees and cannot change. The only element not yet known is the GDP-linked loyalty bonus — which in any case concerns only those who subscribed at issuance.
If I buy a BTP Futura today, will I get the loyalty bonus?
No, never. The bonus belongs only to those who bought at issuance (2020-21) and never sold: the right lives on a dedicated ISIN code that cannot be bought on the market. Whoever buys on the MOT today buys the ordinary code, without the bonus — even holding to maturity.
How much is the GDP loyalty bonus worth?
Nobody knows yet: it depends on the average annual change of Italian nominal GDP and will be announced by the Treasury as each bonus matures. A floor and a cap are guaranteed (for example 1%-3% of capital for the first two issues). The first official figure will arrive in November 2028, at the 2nd issue’s maturity.
Why does the BTP Futura 2037 trade so far below 100?
Because its coupons were fixed in 2021, when rates were near zero, and today the market demands higher yields: the price falls until the effective yield to maturity lines up. Below par, the return comes largely from the capital gain at maturity, not from the coupons.
Is the BTP Futura inflation-linked?
No — a common mistake, the name doesn’t help. The coupons are fixed and rising (step-up), decided at issuance; the loyalty bonus is tied to nominal GDP, not to the price index. The bond linked to Italian inflation is the BTP Italia, which is a different thing.
Is a BTP Futura «better» than a regular BTP?
That’s not a question we answer: it depends on your goals, your horizon and the rest of your portfolio, and this guide gives no advice. What we can give you is the right yardstick: at equal maturity, the honest comparison is net IRR against net IRR, on the real cashflows of both bonds — which is exactly what the comparison tool above does.
What happens if I sell a BTP Futura before maturity?
You sell at the market price of the moment, which can be above or below what you paid: the certainty of redemption at 100 holds only at maturity. And if the bond had been in your account since issuance, selling forfeits the loyalty bonus forever on the sold quantity.
If I sell only part, do I lose the whole bonus?
No: the conversion to the ordinary code affects only the quantity sold. The rest of the position stays on the placement code and accrues the bonus pro-rata. And the interim bonus of the 3rd and 4th issues (2029), once received, is yours to keep: selling afterwards forfeits only the final bonus.
Can I buy more without ruining the bonus on those I hold from issuance?
Yes. A purchase on the MOT lands on the ordinary code, which in your account is a separate security from the placement one: the two positions don’t mix, and the right to the bonus on the original quantity stays intact.
What about inheritance or gifts?
Two opposite cases (official Treasury FAQs): with inheritance the right to the bonus passes to the heirs, provided they hold the bond until the bonus dates; a gift instead is treated as a sale, and the bonus is lost. In both cases, as a government bond, the inheritance-tax exemption stands.
What taxes are due on a BTP Futura?
12.5% on coupons, capital gains and any loyalty bonus (the preferential government-bond rate), plus the 0.2% yearly stamp duty on the securities account. It is exempt from inheritance tax.